A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL

admin April 12, 2024

Authors:

Asish Mitra,Soumya Sonalika,

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2024.04.00006

Keywords:

Brownian Motion,Covid-19,Epidemiology,Euler-Maruyama (EM) Method,Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE),

Abstract

In the present study, we introduce a simple stochastic differential equation based on the Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model to simulate the progression of COVID-19. For a detailed study, a cumulative number of individuals infected with COVID-19 in Norway from 26 Feb 2020 to 09 March 2023 is utilized. The Euler-Maruyama (EM) method is used to solve the problem. Computer codes are developed in Matlab for the solution process.

Refference:

I. Anderson, R. M. and Nokes, D. J., 1991. : ‘Mathematical models of transmission and control’. In Holland, W.W., Detels, R. and Knox, G. (eds), Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 225-252.

II. Ang, K. C., : ‘A simple model for a SARS epidemic, Teaching Mathematics and Its Applications.’ 23, 2004, 181-188. 10.1093/teamat/23.4.181

III. Asish Mitra, : ‘Covid-19 in India and SIR Model’. J. Mech. Cont. & Math. Sci., 15 (7), 2020, 1-8. 10.26782/jmcms.2020.07.00001

IV. Asish Mitra, : ‘Modified SIRD Model of Epidemic Disease Dynamics: A case Study of the COVID-19 Coronavirus’. J. Mech. Cont. & Math. Sci., 16, 2021, 1-8. 10.26782/jmcms.2021.02.00001

V. Bissell, C. and Dillon, C. : ‘Telling Tales: Models, Stories and Meanings, For the Learning of Mathematics.’ 20, 2000, 3-11.

VI. Gard, T.C. : ‘Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations, Marcel Dekker’. New York. 1988,

VII. Higham, D. J. : ‘An algorithmic introduction to numerical simulation of stochastic differential equations’. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Review, 43, 2000, 525-546.

VIII. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases.

IX. Kloeden, P. E., and Platen, E. : ‘Numerical Solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations.’ Springer-Verlag, Berlin. 1999.

X. Oksendal, B. : ‘Stochastic Differential Equations’. 5th ed., Springer-Verlay, Berlin. 1998.

View Download