A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL TIME SERIES: SOME SELECTED FOOD GRAIN IN BANGLADESH

admin February 13, 2016

Authors:

Md. Salauddin Khan,Masudul Islam,Md. Rasel Kabir,Lasker Ershad Ali,

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2016.01.00002

Keywords:

ARIMA,ARMA,Forecast,Foodgrain,

Abstract

Bangladesh bureau of statistics (BBS) publish a statistical year book in every year where comprehensive and systematic summary of basic statistical information of Bangladesh covering wide range of fields. BBS also forecast different sectors such aseconomics, weather, agriculture etc in different time in this country. In this paper we mainly concern on the wheat, rice and maize food grain which plays a vital role in economic development of Bangladesh. The main purposes of this paper as to compare which techniques are better BBS’s or statistical techniques for forecasting. There are different forecasting models are available in statistics among these we used Auto regressive (AR), Moving Average(MA), Auto regressive Moving Average (ARMA)and Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. For this reason, we clarify the stationary and non-stationary series by graphical method. On the basis of that,the stationary model is being set up asthe forecasting purpose. After analyze, we compare the forecasting result of our selective foodgrain and find that for ecasted valu esusing statistical techniques are nearest to the actual values compare to BBS’s project edvalues.

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Author(s): Md. Salauddin Khan, Masudul Islam, Md. Rasel Kabir and Lasker Ershad Ali View Download